Friday, February 22, 2008

Here is a fantastic article by Michael Lewis and Black Scholes model. It is intriguing how we rely so much on probability in markets, however at the same time don't take that into consideration. Is it that the models are too small or that these improbable events are unquantifiable? By small I mean so precise that they cannot or do not take into consideration stuff that is considered extremely rare. Of that the designers of the models cannot even conceive of these events. However, in the last two or three decades there have been consistent "millennial" events every 5-10 years or so. A new model?

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

To be this woman. What life. Yo wish her the best, but this does cause some questions about why I'd want to own News Corp stock. You know it's a Murdoch fiefdom and you appreciate that, but what about any sort of corporate governance? I'm not sure 27 year-old "opera" singers are the way to go.