WSJ.com - Bipartisan Query: Will 2006 Reprise 1994?

I don't think so. First off, the article by definition makes things different. The GOP is aware of where they are at, where they need to go, how to get there. Today's Iraq thing in Congress is one of many steps that they will take. The elections will start to heat up after the 4th of July and then we'll see what happens. Secondly, is the gerrymandering of districts, especially in the South. There is no low laying fruit (sic) anywhere. Dems will have to fight for marginal seats and hope they run a great candidate against an old bad one. Like I said, not too much low hanging fruit. Finally, the President is still able to raise money for the GOP. If I remember right, Clinton was so unpopular that he could barely do fund-raisers for Dems. Which basically meant that the Dems were even further behind in the money race. The other thing is that we have terrible leadership in the party. There is a consistent loser mentality that might be overcome with Rahm, but I lack confidence in Pelosi and Reid.

On the side of how the Dems could take over Congress, would require some hard work. More importantly it would also need some luck. If the Dems were able to nationalize the race in some way and make it a referendum on the President, they could have a chance. The GOP and Rove have been very effective at blunting that attack from the Dems. There have been a bunch of things that are adding up to why Bush is the worst president ever, but it hasn't crystalized yet in the country. Again with the low-hanging fruit, the GOP has burned a lot of their ammo in the last elections gay marriage bans and the like. They won't be able to that too much in this cycle. I'm still 50-50 on the Dem takeover.