Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
FT Alphaville � The French proposal
FT Alphaville � The French proposal
Brady Bonds for Greece looks like it's gaining momentum. I'm still stunned by the fact that "austerity" is the new black. It was conventional wisdom that getting out of economic crisis was "pump-priming." We had made the mistakes of austerity during the Great Depression. Yet here we are again. The disgrace of the fresh water economists and the smart guys in Europe is that they make the same mistakes again.
Brady Bonds for Greece looks like it's gaining momentum. I'm still stunned by the fact that "austerity" is the new black. It was conventional wisdom that getting out of economic crisis was "pump-priming." We had made the mistakes of austerity during the Great Depression. Yet here we are again. The disgrace of the fresh water economists and the smart guys in Europe is that they make the same mistakes again.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Uh-oh — Marginal Revolution
Uh-oh — Marginal Revolution
Another reason that Greece is a problem.
"American banks and insurance companies that will have to make the lion’s share of default insurance payments to European institutions if Greece fails"
Another reason that Greece is a problem.
"American banks and insurance companies that will have to make the lion’s share of default insurance payments to European institutions if Greece fails"
Thursday, June 09, 2011
Friday, June 03, 2011
FT Alphaville � The biggest gamble in IMF history
FT Alphaville � The biggest gamble in IMF history
I don't like this one bit. I hope someone is getting something for all this pain.
I don't like this one bit. I hope someone is getting something for all this pain.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Euro in Crisis - Megan McArdle - Business - The Atlantic
Euro in Crisis - Megan McArdle - Business - The Atlantic
More on the euro crisis. Another point about European integration is that there is no consistent bankruptcy policy across borders. I mean that if those Irish banks made all those terrible loans, they should go out of business. But due to national pride that can't happen. Let's look at the S&L crisis of the 1980s http://bit.ly/qaD6M. A mess of banks made some really bad loans and went out of business. What happened in Ireland the last couple of years? The banks were taken over by the government and propped up. They need to be slowly unwound. Why does every country in the Eurozone need its own bank?
More on the euro crisis. Another point about European integration is that there is no consistent bankruptcy policy across borders. I mean that if those Irish banks made all those terrible loans, they should go out of business. But due to national pride that can't happen. Let's look at the S&L crisis of the 1980s http://bit.ly/qaD6M. A mess of banks made some really bad loans and went out of business. What happened in Ireland the last couple of years? The banks were taken over by the government and propped up. They need to be slowly unwound. Why does every country in the Eurozone need its own bank?
The Euro Living Dangerously - NYTimes.com
The Euro Living Dangerously - NYTimes.com
Is it getting to the point where it now a matter of when? If this starts, where will it end and who benefits? Strong Dollar proponents, of course. Might be a good time to short some European bank stocks. Will this demolish the modest US recovery? If the Euro collapses or crashes, that will hurt exports to Europe. What does China do in the case of Euro failure? See less stuff to Europe, so turn up US exports?
Is it getting to the point where it now a matter of when? If this starts, where will it end and who benefits? Strong Dollar proponents, of course. Might be a good time to short some European bank stocks. Will this demolish the modest US recovery? If the Euro collapses or crashes, that will hurt exports to Europe. What does China do in the case of Euro failure? See less stuff to Europe, so turn up US exports?