Thursday, April 28, 2005

The New York Times > Business > Economic Scene: Economists Try to Explain Why Bubbles Happen

Another good look at the future? What about the real estate "bubble" that everyone talks about? It's funny when you can see something happening, but still do nothing about it.
Can the Fed Downshift Smoothly?

More interesting is the assumption that we are landing. What does that mean for the economy and what's next in the market? Downturn city .... Like the rest of Corporate America, should we all be moving our investments to cash? Do we do what the investment people have told us to do and keep investing through think and thin? I'm very wary of anything going on in the market right now. It's all probability with a little psychology mixed in, right?

Monday, April 25, 2005

The New York Times > Magazine > The Way We Live Now: Democratic Moral Values?

Or maybe Dems should reject moral values outright and claim the ground of the libertarian. Individual Rights over collective rights?

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

washingtonpost.com: Redskins Swap Draft Picks

I'm not sure what the deal is, but they keep getting screwed by Denver on these picks. First they lose Schlereth as a free agent many moons ago. Then they Champ Bailey for a chump and a draft pick. Now they get the 25th pick this year for next year's first, plus extras? Then the free agent losses .... I have much faith in Gibbs as a coach. His GM moves have stunk. What have we gotten? Clinton Portis and Santana Moss for LC, Bailey, Smoot. I think he hasn't done so good.

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Daily Kos :: We Stand with Obama: DLC Exodus

I'm not sure why lefties expend so much energy against the DLC. There are many better targets that have actually wronged folks. The DLC and PPI do believe in a progressive agenda and while I don't always agree with them, they do get the job done. The rise of the bloggeratti and the Net have changed things, but the work that the DLC does is different. They are not designed to be a membership group that puts boots on the ground on election day. They have always been about DC insiders and the folks that want to be there.

Not to say that the DLC leadership aren't hardcore Dems. They have worked in campaigns, Capital Hill and the White House. Most importantly, the have fought losing battles where Dems lost 49 states and gotten creamed in other races. They come from Red states and were sick of the culture of liberal losing (we may have lost in a landslide, but we stuck by our principles, except when our VP was found out to be crazy). That's the foundation of the DLC and what they want. Their tactics are sound if you don't have a lot of money. It has worked in the past and they feel that it can work in the future.

The strategy of the "Third Way" was one to fight for the independents and moderates and not let the GOP win in the middle. The logic being that one voter for the Dems, was one less for the Reps. Pretty basic Poli Sci 101 stuff, but almost revolutionary to the party of Mondale (Principle is what we need, and truth about Dems raising taxes!). Get these voters through the Sister Souljah speech, 100,000 Cops, AmeriCorps, and welfare reform. Change the model into one where the GOP is the reactionary party of "NO!" and the Dems are reforming what's wrong with the country.

The vessel for all this was Bill Clinton. He understood the need for reform (or at least the appearance) and was also a fantastic politcian. He lucked out with Perot, but was still smart enough to co-opt some of his ideas (reduction of the National debt). He did make mistakes (Single Payer Healthcare and failing medicare reform) and other folks had influence (Morris), but the ideas of the DLC (Community, Opportunity, Responsibility) led to victory.

A bigger threat to the DLC theory of the "Third Way" or centrism is the rise of Karl Rove and how Bush 2004 was able to minimize the influence of independents and moderates. The split in the country among the different groups is wider than in many generations. It is time for progressives to realize that their has always been more of them than us. The moments that the progressive movement have held national office have been few. Lots of stuff happens in a few years (TR's Trust Busting, Pure Food and Drug Act; FDR's New Deal, and LBJ's Great Society) are followed by decades of repeals and conservativism. It's happened that way in the past and will continue to repeat itself. Rove's ability to exploit this divide will haunt Dems if they continue to shoot themselves in the foot with infighting and rejecting moderation.
Lott Puts 'Little Bump' Behind Him (washingtonpost.com)

Here is one of the pillars for a Democratic return to power. Motivate the base? Hell yes!
The New York Times > Business > A New Call to Arms: Military Health Care

The path to universal healthcare lies with the military and corporate America. The legacy costs of these promises will force some sort of search for cost savings. Then maybe another step closer?

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

washingtonpost.com: Erosion of Estate Tax Is a Lesson in Politics

The better way to get at this issue is to campaign on it. This could be the HOT issue of the next election cycle. I like Dionne's name of the Paris Hilton Tax Cut. After watching the Rove thing on Frontline yesterday, it gives me hope that change is possible. The night is darkest before the dawn or some cliche like that. This means higher taxes on everyone and benefits a few, very wealthy people.
Twinkies, 75 Years And Counting (washingtonpost.com)

"Others save their Twinkies for special occasions. Like weddings. Philip Delaplane, 50, a chef and instructor at the Culinary Institute of America in New York, says he's loved Twinkies since he was a child. So does his wife, Pam. For their wedding last year, Delaplane built a four-tier wedding cake out of Twinkies and other Hostess snack cakes. "We didn't want anything too stuffy. We wanted something fun," he says."

I love this article. It's funny, light, and a little too sweet.

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

From Tax 'Reform' Panel, Expect a Foregone Conclusion (washingtonpost.com)

Maybe we should come up with an alternative ... I, again, propose a savings tax. Money that is in savings accounts and held as cash or short term securities should be taxed. This would encourage work over other savings and investment. Increased consumption would also arise as the wealthy were forced to purchase things over having it eaten up in taxes. We could put a $200,000 exemption on savings. After that the IRS would come and take it. Just an idea ....
The New York Times > Business > Your Money > Digital Domain: Will the Next Version of Windows Be Worth the Wait?

It won't be (in the near run). There are few serious improvements that they can make on XP for the short haul. Better file management? People are still getting used to not rebooting the their computer four times a day. The biggest challenge to MS is in the near future, an open source OS is going to go mainstream. Microsoft and Longhorn has got to beat that. When it comes, their will be no going back.

As Firefox has shown, the open source community is robust and can change the paradigms of software. First, governments should be on the cusp of switching over to linux. For what they pay in licenses for MS products, they could get for free (an OS, Web Browser, and an office suite). The biggest problem is changing the mindset of the IT people that have so much "invested" in MS.

There are few good arguments against keeping MS products right now. We just need a couple of hardworking network folks and an admin guy that has the guts to make the call.

Monday, April 11, 2005

Samsung Vows to Take a Bite of Apple's Sales

The problem with the iPod is that they have maxed out. Where do you find growth? The next step beyond that is what happens when everyone has an iPod and it is no longer cool? Nike has that problem a decade ago and they are still trying to figure it out. People will catch up with Apple, just a matter of when ...
The New York Times > Business > Your Money > Economic View: A Tax Increase That Bush Didn't Mention

I wonder what Grover thinks about this ... More importantly, is this Stevie Forbes dream?

Friday, April 08, 2005

GM Stops Buying Ads in The Times

Interesting ... They don't have to spend their money on critics. Although maybe with the savings they could invest in a hybrid :)
The New York Times > National > St. Louis Journal: For St. Louis, Great Expectations but a Slow-Rolling Renaissance

Better question is what are the goals of the city. I believe that the foundation of cities lie in density. Not that anyone can force density or require it, but that government should encourage it.

In cities that are hemmoraging people for decades and are broken, how can you recover that "swagger" that cities must have? Why not relieve some of the problems by reducing the amount of government regulation with codes and zoning? Not end safe building and fire codes, but allowing for more density, better streets and sidewalks, greater accessibilty.

The cities that have succeeded in the world need a few things, but government regulation isn't one of them.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

An American idle

GM is in trouble. If everyone knows that they are going to have x% of global marketshare, it would probably be best if they cut to get there. This stuff was going on when Perot was on the board. Not enough cost consciousness (too many executives with too many chauffer driven cars) plus poor sales plus mediocre products equals 15 percent?

If anything the company should go "nuclear" and declare bankruptcy to protect what's left and get rid of the pension obligations. In the end though, they will have to streamline the offerings. I read today that the cost of closing Oldsmobile was very expensive, but maybe they shouldn't be so nice to the dealers and start worrying about what customers they have left.

The other possibility is that they use what they have and aggressively get after their individual brands. Pontiac is the excitment division ... Move all the cars that fit under that banner (Corvette to special vehicle editions of other cars) to Pontiac. Cadillac takes all the luxury brands. Make Chevy the entry level brand. GMC takes all the trucks. Saturn takes on what's quirky and innovative (They should have a car MPG envelope, not a two seater). What Saturn buyers want is something different, economical, and fun (in other words a hybrid). If they rearrange their cars and get the brands and the cars to align, they should be in better shape. No matter what they do, they will continue to lose market share and money for the forseeable future.

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

Democrats Are Lost in the Shuffle While GOP Holds All the Cards

This and the Blueprint articles



Have pointed out that the Dems have no message. What I never understood was why the DLC moved away from the Community, Opportunity, Responsibility. These values hold true for any progressive policy. It's simple, unifying, and thoughtful; basically it can be all things to all people. Why do the Dems keep moving away from the best three words they have had in 30 years.
The New York Times > Business > Your Money > Economic Vew: Do Taxes Thwart Growth? Prove It

Perhaps its best to look at the other end of the spectrum and see what the folks that earn the EITC and/or pay no taxes get out of tax policy. Interesting ideas on taxation though and maybe a more academic look at the Bush tax cuts. Although it sould be argued that the tax cuts have nothing to do with public policy (most academics find his tax cuts hard to defend, ie Mankiw, that fat guy, etc.) and everything to do with being "conservative."